• About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Terms
  • DMCA
  • Sitemap
  • Write For Us
Sunday, March 7, 2021
Daily illinois - USA | News, Sports & Updates Web Magazine
  • Covid-19
  • News
    • All
    • Education
    • Politics
    • Sports
    • World
    Chuck Schumer Holds The Line

    Chuck Schumer Holds The Line

    NBA outlines COVID protocols in 134-page guide

    LeBron takes Giannis first in draft; Jazz stars last

    Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's thumbs-down on minimum wage vote reminds some of John McCain

    Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s thumbs-down on minimum wage vote reminds some of John McCain

    Top 15 Wyoming Public Media Feeds

    Democrats reach deal on unemployment aid, allowing $1.9 trillion relief bill to go forward

    Democrats reach deal on unemployment aid, allowing $1.9 trillion relief bill to go forward

    Bundesliga's all-time best and worst kits: Bayern, Dortmund on both lists

    Bundesliga’s all-time best and worst kits: Bayern, Dortmund on both lists

    011-cnet-finance-mortgage-signage

    Current mortgage interest rates on March 5, 2021: Rates tick up

    DePaul, University of Illinois-Chicago among universities restoring in-person learning this fall (LIVE UPDATES)

    DePaul, University of Illinois-Chicago among universities restoring in-person learning this fall (LIVE UPDATES)

    US adds a strong 379,000 jobs in hopeful sign for economy

    US adds a strong 379,000 jobs in hopeful sign for economy

    California school reopening plan gets final OK, though some lawmakers wanted more

    California school reopening plan gets final OK, though some lawmakers wanted more

  • Science & Tech
    • All
    • Mobile
    PS5 restock: our console Twitter tracker – here's it will go back in stock

    PS5 restock: our console Twitter tracker – here’s it will go back in stock

    Jay Blahnik offers rare look behind the scenes of the Apple Fitness+ studios - 9to5Mac

    Jay Blahnik offers rare look behind the scenes of the Apple Fitness+ studios – 9to5Mac

    Google is policing itself on privacy because it knows it has to | Engadget

    Google is policing itself on privacy because it knows it has to | Engadget

    Reddit Rolls Out Green Indicator Dots to Notify People When You're Online

    Reddit Rolls Out Green Indicator Dots to Notify People When You’re Online

    Best Cheap Wireless Keyboard Deals for March 2021 | Digital Trends

    Best Cheap Wireless Keyboard Deals for March 2021 | Digital Trends

    6 steps to build a data-driven company, according to experts

    6 steps to build a data-driven company, according to experts

    Xiaomi Mi 11 back against floor

    Xiaomi, not Samsung or Apple, is taking advantage of Huawei’s woes in Europe

    'DarkModeBuddy' is a new Mac app for automating Dark Mode switching based on ambient light - 9to5Mac

    ‘DarkModeBuddy’ is a new Mac app for automating Dark Mode switching based on ambient light – 9to5Mac

    A powerline tower in a grassy field.

    Hackers tied to Russia’s GRU targeted the US grid for years

    Microsoft’s Xbox Game Streaming app for Windows includes touch controls, gyro, and more

    Microsoft’s Xbox Game Streaming app for Windows includes touch controls, gyro, and more

  • Entertainment
    • All
    • Gaming
    • Movie
    • Music
    Patrick J. Adams as his

    Meghan Markle’s ‘Suits’ Co-Star Slams Royal Family For Amplifying Bullying Accusations

    Review: In horror films and thrillers, location, location, location often isn't enough

    Review: In horror films and thrillers, location, location, location often isn’t enough

    Who can unseat 'Drivers License' from No. 1? Drake, Justin Bieber and Bruno Mars take aim

    Who can unseat ‘Drivers License’ from No. 1? Drake, Justin Bieber and Bruno Mars take aim

    Pope Francis being welcomed as he arrived to meet with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on Saturday.

    Live Updates: Pope Visits Birthplace of Abraham, Invoking Ties Among Faithful

    An "emotional" moment at an NSC meeting shows why withdrawing from Afghanistan is so hard

    An “emotional” moment at an NSC meeting shows why withdrawing from Afghanistan is so hard

    What’s playing at the drive-in: 'Raya and the Last Dragon,' 'Coming 2 America' and more

    What’s playing at the drive-in: ‘Raya and the Last Dragon,’ ‘Coming 2 America’ and more

    Rickey Meredith presents his 70s Solo Acoustic Show at the Slauterhouse Brewing Company in Auburn this Sunday afternoon.

    March is on

    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn in Disney+'s 'WandaVision' (Courtesy of Marvel Studios).

    With ‘WandaVision’ and ‘The Mandalorian,’ Disney+ has found its magic spell

    Review: Messy but moving, 'Boogie' puts an Asian American basketball player front and center

    Review: Messy but moving, ‘Boogie’ puts an Asian American basketball player front and center

    Dua Lipa is pop's new superstar. She's also a bit of a mystery

    Dua Lipa is pop’s new superstar. She’s also a bit of a mystery

  • Lifestyle
    • All
    • Fashion
    • Food
    • Travel
    The limited-edition HipDot x Peeps collection includes a six-shade eyeshadow palette and a set of sponges in the shape and colors of Peeps’ marshmallow chicks.

    Peeps releases marshmallow-inspired makeup line in time for Easter

    Horoscope for Sunday, March 7, 2021

    Horoscope for Sunday, March 7, 2021

    Inside Russia's deep frozen ghost towns

    Inside Russia’s deep frozen ghost towns

    Freck Beauty Sephora Launch and More Beauty News

    Freck Beauty Sephora Launch and More Beauty News

    Gas chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometer offers new opportunities for analytical testing | Australian Food News

    Gas chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometer offers new opportunities for analytical testing | Australian Food News

    How Bethany Yellowtail elevates Native artists — and women — through fashion

    How Bethany Yellowtail elevates Native artists — and women — through fashion

    Iconic meetings of celebrities with presidents and royalty

    Iconic meetings of celebrities with presidents and royalty

    Why You Shouldn't Travel Abroad Anytime Soon, Even If It Seems OK

    Why You Shouldn’t Travel Abroad Anytime Soon, Even If It Seems OK

    10 Hair Care Products That Tackle Way More Than Tangles

    10 Hair Care Products That Tackle Way More Than Tangles

    Investment in Agrifoodtech Grew Significantly in 2020 - Food Industry Executive

    Investment in Agrifoodtech Grew Significantly in 2020 – Food Industry Executive

27 °f
Chicago
50 ° Mon
49 ° Tue
53 ° Wed
50 ° Thu
No Result
View All Result
Daily illinois - USA | News, Sports & Updates Web Magazine
No Result
View All Result
Home News World

From finance to fish: Everything you need to know about a no-deal Brexit

by Staff Writer
December 19, 2020
in World
Reading Time: 6min read
0
From finance to fish: Everything you need to know about a no-deal Brexit
496
SHARES
1.4k
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter


Fishermen in the English Channel on August 10, 2020 in Hastings, England.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — Negotiations between the U.K. and EU to try to reach a post-Brexit trade deal are on a knife edge, and even those in charge have admitted the talks could go either way — toward a deal, a free trade agreement between the two sides, or a no-deal.

Britain’s post-Brexit transition period ends on Dec. 31 so the race is on to reach a deal before then; both the EU and U.K.’s parliament would need to ratify a deal and there are expectations this could be done quickly, given the need to mitigate a “cliff-edge” scenario for businesses on both sides of the English Channel come Jan. 1.

There are glimmers of hope that a deal can still be reached. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to continue talks beyond last Sunday. Then on Monday, Von der Leyen noted there had been some “movement” in talks and on Wednesday, said that while she could not say whether there would or would not be a deal, “there is a path to an agreement now.” 

“I am glad to report that the issues linked to governance now have largely been resolved. The next few days are going to be decisive,” von der Leyen noted, but, she added, competition rules (to maintain what the EU calls a “level playing field”) and and fishing rights remain unresolved.

What happens in a no-deal scenario?

If no trade deal is reached in the coming days and there is no extension to the transition period (the EU has not ruled out extending talks beyond Dec. 31 but the U.K. has repeatedly rebuffed the notion), then the U.K. and EU will have to trade on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms.

At a basic level, this means that import duties will be placed on each other’s products and trade will become more costly and complex. Prices for consumers on goods are very likely to rise as a result, and U.K. supermarkets are already stockpiling certain long-life goods in case of shortages or delays at ports.

In 2019, U.K. exports to the EU were worth £294 billion or $393.5 billion (43% of all U.K. exports) while U.K. imports from the EU were worth £374 billion (and accounting for 52% of all U.K. imports), government data shows.

Experts note that trading on WTO terms would be more difficult for some sectors than others.

“Without an agreement on their future trading relations — particularly some kind of free trade agreement — trade between the U.K. and the EU will be based purely on WTO terms,” Catherine Barnard and Anand Menon, senior fellow and director, respectively, of ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’ think tank, noted in a detailed report on the issue.

“This means import duties and various controls will be imposed on trade between the U.K. and the EU, with impacts concentrated in agriculture and industries that depend on products which repeatedly cross between the U.K. and the rest of the EU, such as components to make cars or ingredients for processing food.”

Sheep at the Carrick T and Son at High Crossgill Farm in Alston Moor, Cumbria, UK. Agriculture is one sector likely to be affected by a post-Brexit trade deal.

Owen Humphreys – PA Images | PA Images | Getty Images

Services, travel … and fish

A no-deal scenario would see other areas of erstwhile cooperation collapse overnight too. Access to U.K. waters for EU fishing fleets (and vice versa) could disappear overnight, travel to the EU from the U.K. might have to stop (at least temporarily due to the coronavirus pandemic) and the services industry could all be sorely affected in a no-deal scenario. All these are still unknowns as negotiations continue.

Trading on WTO terms would mean the U.K. services sector, a large part of its economy that could previously “access the whole of the EU’s single market relatively freely, would only be allowed the much more restricted access of the EU and UK’s commitments in the WTO,” according to The UK in Europe’s Barnard and Menon.

The financial services industry is still one area of uncertainty. The EU has not yet decided whether to grant market access for U.K. banks and other financial firms after Dec. 31 and might not make a decision until January. The lack of clarity has already prompted some banks to move offices and staff to mainland Europe.

Fishermen in the English Channel in August, 2020.

Dan Kitwood | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Fishing has also been a continuous sticking point during negotiations with the EU keen to maintain access for fishing fleets and the U.K. to largely curb fishing rights. A no-deal scenario could see EU access to U.K. waters end abruptly, and vice versa, and the U.K. has already threatened to deploy gunboats to protect British waters. There are concerns that some fishing fleets could ignore any restrictions, leading to potential clashes. These are not unheard of; there have been physical skirmishes, dubbed the “Scallop wars,” between British and French fishing fleets in recent years amid disputes over fishing.

Travel is one area that concerns many people in the U.K. when it comes to deal or no-deal; The Covid-19 pandemic has cast more uncertainty over possible travel disruption after the transition period ends as the U.K. will become a “third-country” and out of the EU, meaning that British travelers might not be allowed into the region given the high infection rate in the country, unless specifically exempted.

Planes, trains and automobiles

The EU has already published contingency measures covering the aviation and road haulage industry in case there is no deal.

The measures seek to ensure “basic air connectivity … to ensure the provision of certain air services between the U.K. and the EU for 6 months, provided the UK ensures the same” as well as measures to ensure aviation safety continues. It also proposes regulation covering basic connectivity with regard to both road freight, and road passenger transport for 6 months, again provided it is reciprocated by the U.K.

Freight lorries are seen queueing as they wait to enter the port of Dover on the south coast of England on December 10, 2020, before boarding a ferry to Europe.

JUSTIN TALLIS | AFP | Getty Images

Lastly, and controversially for the U.K. that wants to “take back control” of its territorial waters, the EU proposed a contingency measure over fisheries “for continued reciprocal access by EU and U.K. vessels to each other’s waters after 31 December 2020. In order to guarantee the sustainability of fisheries and in light of the importance of fisheries for the economic livelihood of many communities.”

Market impact

Economists, analysts and strategists on both sides of the English Channel have spent months, if not the last four years since the Brexit referendum in June 2016 (and very likely, before that) debating the economic impact that Brexit (deal or no-deal) might have on the pound, gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment, property prices and the price of goods, among other things.

Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equities strategist at Goldman Sachs, weighed up the possible impact of a deal and no-deal in a note this week. He and his team concluded that “if ultimately there is no deal, (U.K.) domestic companies would be hit along several dimensions.”

An image of London’s skyline, taken during the evening.

Prisma by Dukas | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

These would be: “1) Lower GDP growth as frictions hit output and trade; 2) Higher costs in GBP (sterling) terms as sterling falls versus other currencies, and 3) lower real incomes for consumers as the basket of goods they buy becomes more expensive in sterling terms.”

Goldman reiterated its no deal Brexit target for EUR/GBP to 0.96 (a euro is currently trading at around 90 pence) “but would expect markets to only partially price that even if talks are unsuccessful over the next few weeks.”

Would no-deal be so bad?

Capital Economics’ chief U.K. economist Paul Dales argued in a note this week that a “no deal” scenario would be “very different to the ‘no deal’ that people have been talking about since the EU referendum in June 2016.”

“At that point, ‘no deal’ meant the U.K. leaving the EU with no agreements on anything whatsoever. But now, a “no deal” would most probably involve all those agreements in the Withdrawal Agreement (the financial settlement, citizens’ rights, Northern Ireland), the substantial progress made on financial services equivalence and the rollover of the bulk of the U.K.’s third-party EU trade deals,” he noted.

Related posts

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's thumbs-down on minimum wage vote reminds some of John McCain

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s thumbs-down on minimum wage vote reminds some of John McCain

March 7, 2021
011-cnet-finance-mortgage-signage

Current mortgage interest rates on March 5, 2021: Rates tick up

March 5, 2021

“A no deal at this stage would therefore be a less disruptive ‘cooperative’ no deal than a more disruptive ‘uncooperative’ no deal. As a result, the economic consequences would probably be smaller than most people fear,” he said. Although he conceded that “the economy wouldn’t get off scot free.”



Source by www.cnbc.com

Tags: Brexitbusiness newsWorld economy
Share198Tweet124Share50
  • Trending
  • Comments
  • Latest
Van Morrison teams with Eric Clapton for anti-lockdown song

Van Morrison teams with Eric Clapton for anti-lockdown song

December 19, 2020
Sen. Rand Paul's ‘Festivus Report’ claims $54B in tax dollars was 'totally wasted'

Sen. Rand Paul’s ‘Festivus Report’ claims $54B in tax dollars was ‘totally wasted’

December 23, 2020
'Zombie' greenhouse gas lurks in permafrost beneath the Arctic Ocean

‘Zombie’ greenhouse gas lurks in permafrost beneath the Arctic Ocean

December 24, 2020
Detroit mayor rejects initial J&J vaccine shipment, saying Pfizer and Moderna are 'the best'

Detroit mayor rejects initial J&J vaccine shipment, saying Pfizer and Moderna are ‘the best’

0
Fact check: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced he would defer his annual raise

Fact check: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced he would defer his annual raise

0
Swedish government sidelines epidemiologist who steered country's no lockdown experiment as deaths rise

Swedish government sidelines epidemiologist who steered country’s no lockdown experiment as deaths rise

0
Detroit mayor rejects initial J&J vaccine shipment, saying Pfizer and Moderna are 'the best'

Detroit mayor rejects initial J&J vaccine shipment, saying Pfizer and Moderna are ‘the best’

March 7, 2021
The limited-edition HipDot x Peeps collection includes a six-shade eyeshadow palette and a set of sponges in the shape and colors of Peeps’ marshmallow chicks.

Peeps releases marshmallow-inspired makeup line in time for Easter

March 7, 2021
Horoscope for Sunday, March 7, 2021

Horoscope for Sunday, March 7, 2021

March 7, 2021
Daily illinois - USA | News, Sports & Updates Web Magazine

Copyright © 2020 Dailyillinois.com.

Navigate Site

  • About
  • Contact
  • Privacy
  • Terms
  • DMCA
  • Sitemap
  • Write For Us

Follow Us

No Result
View All Result
  • About Us Page
  • Contact
  • DMCA Policy
  • Home 1
  • Privacy Policy
  • Submit, Guest Post, Write For Us and Become a Contributor
  • Terms of Use

Copyright © 2020 Dailyillinois.com.

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.